An immune-protein score combining TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP for predicting severe COVID-19 disease.

COVID-19 patients are oftentimes over- or under-treated due to a deficit in predictive management tools. This study reports derivation of an algorithm that integrates the host levels of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP into a single numeric score that is an early indicator of severe outcome for COVID-19 patients and can identify patients at-risk to deteriorate. 394 COVID-19 patients were eligible; 29% meeting a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission/non-invasive or invasive ventilation/death). The score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.86, superior to IL-6 (AUC 0.77; p = 0.033) and CRP (AUC 0.78; p < 0.001). Likelihood of severe outcome increased significantly (p < 0.001) with higher scores. The score differentiated severe patients who further deteriorated from those who improved (p = 0.004) and projected 14-day survival probabilities (p < 0.001). The score accurately predicted COVID-19 patients at-risk for severe outcome, and therefore has potential to facilitate timely care escalation and de-escalation and appropriate resource allocation.

Observational cohort study of IP-10's potential as a biomarker to aid in inflammation regulation within a clinical decision support protocol for patients with severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of severely ill COVID-19 patients requires simultaneous management of oxygenation and inflammation without compromising viral clearance. While multiple tools are available to aid oxygenation, data supporting immune biomarkers for monitoring the host-pathogen interaction across disease stages and for titrating immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. METHODS: In this single-center cohort study, we used an immunoassay platform that enables rapid and quantitative measurement of interferon γ-induced protein 10 (IP-10), a host protein involved in lung injury from virus-induced hyperinflammation. A dynamic clinical decision support protocol was followed to manage patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and examine the potential utility of timely and serial measurements of IP-10 as tool in regulating inflammation. RESULTS: Overall, 502 IP-10 measurements were performed on 52 patients between 7 April and 10 May 2020, with 12 patients admitted to the intensive care unit. IP-10 levels correlated with COVID-19 severity scores and admission to the intensive care unit. Among patients in the intensive care unit, the number of days with IP-10 levels exceeding 1,000 pg/mL was associated with mortality. Administration of corticosteroid immunomodulatory therapy decreased IP-10 levels significantly. Only two patients presented with subsequent IP-10 flare-ups exceeding 1,000 pg/mL and died of COVID-19-related complications. CONCLUSIONS: Serial and readily available IP-10 measurements potentially represent an actionable aid in managing inflammation in COVID-19 patients and therapeutic decision-making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04389645, retrospectively registered on May 15, 2020.

Multi-center nationwide comparison of seven serology assays reveals a SARS-CoV-2 non-responding seronegative subpopulation.

BACKGROUND: An Israeli national taskforce performed a multi-center clinical and analytical validation of seven serology assays to determine their utility and limitations for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. METHODS: Serology assays from Roche, Abbott, Diasorin, BioMerieux, Beckman-Coulter, Siemens, and an in-house RBD ELISA were included. Negative samples from 2391 individuals representative of the Israeli population, and 698 SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive patients, collected between March and May 2020, were analyzed. FINDINGS: Immunoassays sensitivities between 81.5%-89.4% and specificities between 97.7%-100% resulted in a profound impact on the expected Positive Predictive Value (PPV) in low (<15%) prevalence scenarios. No meaningful increase was detected in the false positive rate in children compared to adults. A positive correlation between disease severity and antibody titers, and no decrease in antibody titers in the first 8 weeks after PCR positivity was observed. We identified a subgroup of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (~5% of patients), who remained seronegative across a wide range of antigens, isotypes, and technologies. INTERPRETATION: The commercially available automated immunoassays exhibit significant differences in performance and expected PPV in low prevalence scenarios. The low false-positivity rate in under 20's suggests that cross-reactive immunity from previous CoV strains is unlikely to explain the milder disease course in children. Finding no decrease in antibody titers in the first 8 weeks is in contrast to some reports of short half-life for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The ~5% who were seronegative non-responders, using multiple assays in a population-wide manner, represents the proportion of patients that may be at risk for re-infection. FUNDING: Israel Ministry of Health.